The war in Iraq has not turned out to be an easy one. It was poorly planned, the aftermath has been executed haphazardly, and our leaders have failed to understand its true nature. The coalition forces are in a difficult position, and their political leaders are at a crossroads of decisions. Whether to fight on or leave further counter insurgent operations to the Iraqi government is a matter the US Congress is currently facing. It is a decision that will shape the region for generations to come.
The growing numbers in opposition of the war would like to see the US pull out of Iraq regardless of the ability for Iraqi government forces to take over security of their country.
This is a dangerous time. Past wars that were unpopular in the United States (Vietnam) saw domestic dissatisfaction result in the pullout of US military personnel and the fall of the government. This was expected by military experts who feared the South Vietnamese forces were not ready to take over. It resulted in a unified (though Communist) Vietnam that represented a nationalist majority in the new country.
Iraq has similar parallels militarily but not politically. The government may not be ready to take over security and it may not represent the population well. Unlike Vietnam however, there is not an organized opposition prepared to win and provide a stable replacement upon victory. Losing in Iraq now would result in a similar situation as Afghanistan in 1989, when the Soviet Union pulled out and left the various factions of the mujahadeen to fight upon removing the puppet regime. The fighting continued throughout the 1990s and resulted in the Taliban controlling most (though not all) of the country while war raged throughout its regions.
Various politicians are supporting the removal of American troops from Iraq in the very near future. This may sound like the right thing to do; no one wants to fight a war that doesn’t make sense or seems to have no end. It would be hard to overemphasize the instability this would cause.
Much of the opposition to the war did not support the war from the beginning. There has been a great deal of frustration among many Americans that the Bush Administration has not been accountable for their failures in this and other regards. Supporting an end to the war as soon as troops can be removed would be black mark on their record that many believe would be well deserved. This author would agree that accountability is paramount in any democracy and that enough has not pained this administration as might be called for. However, instability in Mesopotamia will be rampant as a result, and the damage done to US interests will be long term and deep.
After funding the mujahadeen in their fight against Soviets in Afghanistan, the US pulled out its support for the rebels as soon as the latter withdrew. The resulting power vacuum brought much bloodshed while the various factions fought for power. When the Taliban took over, they brought a hitherto unheard of extremism to the country that allowed al-Qaeda to find a home. Helping Afghanistan stabilize politically would have been far cheaper in both economic and human cost. Voters should take note.
Electorates are incredibly irrational, knowingly voting for candidates that tell them what they want to hear and avoiding ones who tell them what they need to hear. Irrational policies result; with hindsight they are analyzed and dissected by the historians who mercilessly point out the errors while explaining the reasoning of the decision makers. The understanding of these errors is also available at the time they are made, but the voters are usually not interested. They prefer decisions to be black and white, leaving the gray area for future generations to tangle with. There is an opportunity now to avoid a major foreign policy mistake, but due to its own hedonism, the Bush Administration’s cult of personality has run out with its constituency. If the US pulls out prematurely, the Middle East will suffer, affecting those regions that have interests there; a scary prospect indeed.
Voters beware: pay attention to who you listen to as we approach this next election. The war in Iraq is a mess, and your president is to blame. Unfortunately, pulling out now would not just punish him, but the rather the whole region therein. It is likely to make matters worse, not better. Some politicians (e.g. John McCain) are telling you what you need to hear. You can listen now, or in a few years time, listen to another politician tell you about his plan to fix the Middle East. Of course, by then you’ll know that the time to do that was in 2007, but public support prevented our leaders from getting the job done. If you wonder why history repeats itself, take long look; the stage is being set for another such event in the debate over Iraq.
